TSD College Football Primer: Week 6

“When it comes to betting football, treat each team like a stock: always make sure to buy low and sell high, capitalize on public perception”- Todd Fuhrman, former linesmaker for Caesar’s Palace

I am rolling with the great words of Todd Fuhrman and buying low and selling high in this big week of college football.  Outside of the betting, we should have some great games to watch and we will get a good look at who is a legit title contender and who is a pretender.

Last Week:  5-4 (25-23, 52%)

Last Week Picks That Made Me Look Smart: 

Both my OSU (Ohio State and Oregon State) upset picks hit.  Both teams went into hostile territory and did their jobs. (Thank you, Sean Payton)

Last Week Pick That Made Me Look Bad: 

Stanford didn’t quite travel as well as a though they would.  They got upset in Washington and showed their offense isn’t ready for the big time.

Thursday 10/4/12

ECU at UCF (-11) 8pm

The Pirates have found their running back and his name is Vintavious “D.B.” Cooper.  The C-USA leading Pirates travel to the unfriendly confines of the Bright House Networks Stadium (Worst Stadium Name Ever) in Orlando to face the UCF Knights.  The Knights are favored at home, but ECU will be able to slow the pace down enough to keep it close.

#13 USC (-13.5) at Utah 9pm

The preseason #1 Trojans will bring their high-powered offense into Salt Lake City for the 1st time in 85 years.  Before the ASU game I would have picked Utah to cover, but after getting rolled by the Devils 2 weeks ago to the tune of 512 yards I am staying away from the Utes.

Saturday 10/6/12

#24 Northwestern at Penn State (-3) 12pm

The Wildcats are ranked and looking for their 1st 6-0 start since 1962.  They get an improving Penn State team that still is a tough road trip.  This game will be close, but I don’t see Penn State’s D being able to slow down Kain Colter enough for the win.

#4 LSU (-2.5) at #10 Florida 3:30pm CBS

If there is a buy low candidate this weekend, it is the LSU Tigers.  They have played uninspired over the last 2 weeks against Auburn and Towson, but they’re winning.  I don’t see them coming into Gainesville dragging their feet and look for their defense to contain the Gators and win a tough SEC road game.

#5 Georgia at #6 South Carolina (-1.5) 7pm

FACT: The winner of this game will be facing Alabama or LSU for the SEC Title in December.  Get ready for some ground and pound SEC football.  The team that wins will be the team that is able to run the ball the best.  I like that SC is getting the Bulldogs at home, but I still think Georgia is the #2 team in the country.  I’m going with Georgia in a close SEC matchup.

#8 West Virginia at #11 Texas (-7) 7pm

The Longhorns have not faced an offense like WVU and the Mountaineers have not faced a defense like Texas this season.  Something is going to give.  I think it will be the Texas defense that breaks first.  The big key will be turnovers.  Though their D gives up numbers, the WVU D will cause turnovers and that will keep them in the game late.

#9 Notre Dame (-13) vs. Miami (Soldier Field) 7:30pm

The first edition of the Catholics vs. Convicts Bowl since 1990 should be must watch.  The Irish have fought their way back into the national spotlight with sold defensive play and the Hurricanes have one of the most potent quick strike offenses in the game.  Look for the Irish’s lack of offensive consistency to hurt them and for Miami to find ways to score on Notre Dame.

#4 Florida State (-14.5) at N.C. State 8pm

FSU comes to Raleigh with a top 10 ranked offense and defense and are far and away the best team in the ACC.   I love the Florida State team as a BCS title contender and I think Wolfpack will have tough time keeping it closer than 2 TDs.

#21 Nebraska at #12 Ohio State (-3) 8pm

The Buckeyes are undefeated, but they are the most unimpressive undefeated team in college football.  I love the Nebraska running game and think that they will control the pace and leave Columbus with the win.

#23 Washington at #2 Oregon (-24) 10:30pm

After beating Stanford, the Huskies are in the top 25.  Enjoy it while it last.  The Ducks are going to roll the Huskies and this game will be unwatchable by midnight eastern time.

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