It is well-known that I am a gambler. Whether it’s football, baseball, basketball, poker, horses, in between or birth control, I will weigh the odds and take a chance. I have won some and I have lost some, but I live by two truths.
“Money won is twice as sweet as money earned.” and “The only thing better than betting and losing is betting and winning.”
I have learned something this year that I will now share with all of you. Betting NASCAR is easy money.
(I have changed the amounts because I don’t want the IRS, my creditors and my wife to know how much I bet, but the % are still the same.)
I have bet on all 31 races so far this season, with an average $50 on each race. That is spread between 2-5 drivers each week. Some drivers I bet $10 on and some I bet $25 on. That means I have bet $1,550 on NASCAR this year.
Ex: At Charlotte last week I bet Jimmie Johnson (6/1)- $10, Greg Biffle (8/1)- $10, Kasey Kahne (11/1)- $15 and Clint Bowyer (15/1)- $15. When Bowyer won a collected $225. When you subtract the $35 from the losing bets, I net $190.
I have won $3,192 so far on NASCAR this year. Out of the 31 races this season I have picked the winner 19 times for success rate of 61%.
Once you subtract the losing bets $1,085 from the total won you get $2,113 net.
How is this done?
NASCAR is the easiest sport to predict on the planet. How many races are there? 36! How many winners have there been this year? 14. How many drivers enter the race? 43! That’s only 32% of the full-time drivers with a win. That means you can eliminate 68% of all drivers up front. That is a consistent number. 2011: 61% Out, 2010: 70% Out, 2009: 68% Out.
I actually cut more drivers than that and I have only bet on 11 drivers to win a race this season. Those drivers are. Jimmie Johnson, Denny Hamlin, Brad Kesolowski, Tony Stewart, Matt Kenseth, Jeff Gordon, Kasey Kahne, Kyle Busch, Greg Biffle, Carl Edwards and Clint Bowyer.
Here are my 5 rules to betting NASCAR.
1. Only bet previous race winners. First time winners are rare and you can’t predict them at all. Trevor Bayne, Paul Menard, Regan Smith are all fluke wins that came out of nowhere. Only bet the proven winners.
2. Bet at the last-minute possible. If the race is a 2pm start time, don’t have your bets in until 1:45p. Things can change. If you bet Kyle Busch to win on Thursday and he wrecks his car in practice or loses an engine, you might not like that bet on Sunday.
3. Know your history. If the race is in Dover, you need to bet Jimmie Johnson. If the race is on a restrictor plate track you bet Tony Stewart or Matt Kenseth. If the race is in the state of Virginia, bet Hamlin and Johnson. Know how a guy runs on a track and bet the trend.
4. Watch! Not just the races, but practice and qualifying. Watch the drive interviews and the shows on ESPN and Speed. Use that info to make your bets.
5. Bet your favorite driver. It will make the races more fun. I bet Clint Bowyer each race and he has won 3 times this season. Is that normal? No, but when he wins it’s a decent payout.
There are 5 races left this season and if you follow these 5 steps you will finish in the money at the end of the season.
P.S. My prowess in betting NASCAR is a needed gift due to my abysmal football betting record this season. That is a little harder to predict.